Peregrination Math
andy| August 27, 2008 3:14 pmShould the bikes be on the roads? Well, this is a tricky question… for some people. For me it is pretty simple. Yes. But, let’s go baby steps. What is the best way to travel? It turns out the most efficient way is bike. The least efficient way is a single passenger car. In between are things like trains, buses, walking, etc.
But what is the cost of each mode of transportation? Well, walking is pretty much free. For biking, you got to buy a bike. Most people will say that trains are super expensive, because you have to build tracks etc. But what about cars? What is the cost of a car? Well, let’s do a quick math. My assumption is that we buy a car and throw it away 10 years later.
- Normal car: $17,000
- Gas for 10 years at 22 mpg and 15,000 miles per year and $4 per gallon: (15000 / 22) * $4 * 10 = $27,240
- Oil changes every 3000 miles: (15000 / 3000) * $15 * 10 = $750
- Repairs let say $500 per year: $5,000
- Insurance and registration is another $900 per year: $9,000
Did I forget something? Anyway, according to my math, the total cost of having a car for 10 years is about $58,990. But is that the total cost of driving?
Let’s start by comparing this to a bike. Not completely fair comparison, but let’s try it anyway:
- Normal bike: $800
- Panniers, trailer: $600
- Tubes, break pads, let say 10 tubes a year ($5), 2 tires a year ($20), 2 sets of break pads a year ($20): $1000
- Repairs let say $200 per year: $2,000
Did I miss something here? Well, the total is $4,400. And this is for a bike that is tuned twice a year, gets new tires and break pads once a year, has panniers, trailer and so on.
Ok, how about public transportation. Assuming you live in the Bay Area, you are looking at the cost of a bus and Caltrain, Bart, Ace, or Amtrak. So, you are looking at anywhere from $5 to $12 per day for the commuter rail, and couple of dollars per day for the bus if you need a local connection. Assuming the worst, you are looking at $2 for a bus in the south bay, $6 for the Caltrain to San Francisco, and another $1.5 in San Francisco. This twice a day is $19 per day, which in 10 years is about $49,400. But this is the worst case. Also, all public transportation modes have 10 rides or monthly plans. Also, there are commuter tax breaks for the public transport. All these incentives can lower the cost of riding down to couple of $100 per year.
So, according to this, whoever can bike to work should. There is significant saving in that. So even ignoring impact on environment, health, and time, this should be enough motivation for most people to change their transportation habits.
22 Responses to “Peregrination Math”
A commute that requires a bus in the southbay, a train, and a bus in San Francisco is probably not a commute that could easily be done on bike. However, even that would cost only about $250 a month (or about $30000 per year). Many employers provide free transit passes, making the cost $0.
Comparing the direct costs, however, includes some of the significant subsidies. Caltrain has a farebox recover rate of around 50%, though this would probably still end up with a lower cost than driving. [the recovery rate is average, so even the monthly pass is probably providing a significant subsidy to all the 'reduced fare' passengers].
We’ll consider a reasonable bike commute, and say its $15000 in direct costs + $10,000 in subsidy for transit, for a total of $25,000.
Cars are also significantly subsidized. Parking is the big freebee. You see ‘cheap’ parking spots for $200/month in San Francisco. In the suburbs, the “free” driveway, garage and street parking easily contain enough land to build another house. Thus, we could either factor in parking costs, or the huge parking subsidy to the cost of driving. Assuming a parking space at home and one at work that would be $400/month *12*10 = $48,000. (And this is only including home and work - not the many other places where parking is subsidized.)
For bikes, we could consider the possibility of bringing the bike in at both work and home, giving a $0 subsidy. In the most expensive case, it may bear a cost of $20/month for a bike locker. Though we can go with a middle ground and assume $10/month parking cost/subsidy for a total of $1200 ten years.
Now on to actual infrastructure and external costs/subsidies. Air pollution is more significant from cars, and less so from trains, and nonexistent for bikes. Noise pollution: trains are louder, but only provide brief bursts of noise. Cars (especially on freeways) provide continual noise pollution. Bikes are quiet enough to be almost insignificant. Fatalities and severe injuries are most common with cars. (Solo bike fatalities are extremely rare as are train derailments.)
Roads: bikes and cars share local roads. Trains have tracks to themselves. All are subsidized through sales and property tax. Gas taxes primarily subsidize the freeways that are dedicated to cars. (Some sales and property tax goes to freeways, and some gas tax goes to local roads. We’ll just assume they cancel each other out, leaving local roads entirely local tax funded.) For local roads, the heavier weight of cars causes them to do much more damage. Thus, they end up receiving a greater subsidy than the bikes.
Time: during peak travel times, the train is likely to be faster (if connections and locations match) Cycling is likely to be slower, with driving in between. However, there are cases where any of the means could be fastest. However, the utility of the time spent impacts the results. Biking could replace a trip to a gym and a workout. Thus a 40 minute bike ride could replace a 5 minute trip to the gym, 40 minute bike ride, and 5 minute trip back. Net commute time is thus negative 10 minutes. A 40 minute train commute could provide 30 minutes of productive work time, thus leaving a commute of 10 minutes. A 40 minute drive provides minimal opportunity for productive work. (Most work done impinges upon safety, thus negating its benefits.) With commutes of similar time length, biking is the most time efficient. If we assume a similar length commute, and assign a value of $60/hour, a bike costs -$10*260*10=-$26000, train $26000 and car $104,000 over ten years.
Thank you Jeremy for this exhaustive comment. One thing that you missed from the subsidizing of various transportation methods is the fact that pretty much all roads, highways, etc are built using tax money. Furthermore, oil companies are subsidized. And finally car companies (at least American in USA) are or will be subsidized.
Cycling is subsidized only by a small amount where tax money is used to fund the bike lanes and other bike facilities. Public transportation is subsidized significantly, but still not nearly as much as the car infrastructure is.
You’ve found the MONKEY ELECTRIC ALLEYCAT CHECKPOINT. Sign in here by leaving a comment if you wish, then visit the next checkpoint in North Carolina.
Signing in for Alleycat
Hoo Hoo Alley Cat (captinsano443)
Checking in!
I’m Here!
!t00w
Checking in for the alleycat. Bike commuting rocks!!
Cruising now. On to the next check point.
Checkpoint three check-in
Thanks for letting us play in your sandbox, Andy. Alleycat.
I get free tune-ups at the place I bought my bike…too bad (for my poor bike) that it’s inconvenient to get there. May gas soon cost $20/gallon so the roads will be safer to travel on.
Thanks for letting me stop at this checkpoint Andy.
Now to catch up with everyone else ….
Got a little sidetracked on this blog as I alleycat race, thanks for writing good posts for us to read!
Found #3
Checkin for alleycat
great post! I’m definitely cycling for commutes to save money as a reason among others….
cats of the alley moving on
Andy:
Thanks for the great post. Checking in.
Awesome post andy. alleycat checkin.
Yeah! Checkpoint three complete!
Great post Andy. I forwarded it to a friend. Nice stop on the alleycat.
Care to comment?